January 22, 2010 Update: (a) semifinal (based on January-November 2009) 2009 U.S. Demand statistics: The Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index was 328 for 2008 and 219 for 2009. The Demand Index for Granite Countertops was 948 for 2008 and 606 for 2009. The Demand Index for Granite and Marble Tile was 429 in 2008 and 283 in 2009.
(b) World Bismuth Demand statistics based on 100 for 2004 are 100 for 2004, 92 for 2005, 101 for 2006, 122 for 2007, and 55 for 2008.
November 9,2009 update on "Early Bird for 2009 Materials Outlook Reexamined",
(a) 2009 Dimension Stone: Statistics: Sales-Related Demand: The Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index based on 100 for 1997 was 365 for 2007, 328 for 2008 (semifinal), and 218 for 2009 (very preliminary). The Demand Index for Granite Countertops based on 100 for 1997 was 1066 in 2007, 948 in 2008, and 601 in 2009 (very preliminary). The Demand Index for Granite and Marble Tile based on 100 for 1997 was 473 in 2007, 429 in 2008, and 285 in 2009 (very preliminary). Results from DSAN Observers (incomplete) in Fall 2009: granite countertops sales down 20% to 35% from 2008, granite and marble tile down 26% from 2008; 2009 domestic granite monument sales down 9% from 2008, 2009 Indiana limestone down 8% from 2008, 2009 slate (domestic) sales down 4% from 2008, and 2009 sandstone down 14% from 2008.
(b) Bismuth, Graphite, and Indium (11/30): Bismuth demand in 2009, judging by import trends, is likely to be down 40% from 2008, spread fairly equally among the uses. The NY Dealer price for bismuth did not change dramatically from January 2009, drifting down to a little below $7 per lb. in the summer and recovering to almost $9 in November. The Customer-Input price for bismuth drifted around the $26-$27 per kg. range in 1st Q through 3rd Q 2009, from around $29 in November-December 2008. Overall 2009 natural graphite demand is likely to be down 30% (observers) to 45% (imports). The U.S. 2009 demand by end use will be down 25% to 30% from 2008 for the end uses, except for graphite-containing refractories down 50% and graphite foil-expanded graphite down 40%-50%, and graphite in Li on batteries up 10% to 15% (world). The 2009 ITO (indium) demand is likely to be down 30% for the world.
(c) Dimension Stone: Third Quarter 2009 Trends for Demand and World Demand in 2008 (12/12): The 3rd Quarter 2009 major statistical components for granite were up 20% from the 2nd Quarter. The 3rd Quarter 2009 major statistical components for marble were up 7.5% from the 2nd Quarter. The 3rd Quarter 2009 component for granite countertop demand is up 19% from 2nd Quarter. Compared to the 1st Quarter 2009, this indicates that both demands have bottomed and are beginning to recover, as has demand for granite countertops. World Demand for finished granite was 227 in 2006, 247 in 2007, and 249 in 2008 (final). World Demand for finished marble was 200 in 2006, 248 in 2007, and 272 in 2008 (final). Apparently the 2008 downturn was not as bad as first thought.
August 15, 2009 update on "Early Bird for 2009 Detailed Outlook"
Newly arrived statistics are suggesting a better outlook for dimension stone and bismuth.
The 2nd Quarter 2009 major statistical components for granite of the overall demand index were up 18% from the 1st Q, and the major components for marble were up 2% from the 1st Q, perhaps indicating a bottoming for the overall demand index. The 2nd Q 2009 component for granite countertop demand was up 18% from the 1st Q. This provides a little comfort after the gloom of the "Early Bird".
For bismuth, new bismuth consumption statistics show that 2008 was down 11% from 2007 (2008 U.S. bismuth imports were down 37% from 2007, as mentioned in the "Early Bird"). 2009 2nd Q U.S. bismuth imports have jumped up 28% from 1st Q imports.
See http://www.basicsmines.com for this "Early Bird"
This blog shows the very latest indexes or data for dimension stone, bismuth, graphite, and indium. It replaces the Pulsetaking issues on http://www.basicsmines.com.
