BASICS MINES UPDATE 2013

February 18, 2013  Update: Dimension Stone: World Demand for Finished Granite Index for 2010 was 236, and for 2011 269.  World Demand for Finished Marble Index for 2010 was 265 and for 2011 303.

February 18, 2013 Update Dimension Stone: The Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index for first three quarters 2012: The major statistical components for granite in 2012 were ahead of 2011 by roughly 10% but slowing in the Third Quarter.  The major statistical components for marble in 2012 started the same as in 2011 but accelerated the next quarter and again the following quarter until Third Quarter 2012 was up almost 20% from 2011.

December 10, 2012 Update: Graphite: Based on the January-September 2012 U.S. import statistics, 2012 demand for the major types of graphite will be no better than 2011 demand, and for large flake graphite demand will be much worse; overall 2012 demand will be down 15% from 2011.

December 10, 2012 Update: Bismuth: Based on January-September 2012 U.S. import statistics, 2012 demand for bismuth will probably be down 5%-6% from 2011.  The first two 2012 quarters of the USGS Bismuth Mineral Industry Survey show almost unchanged demand from 2011 and a price not moving much from $10 per pound.

March 14, 2012: Update: Dimension Stone: Fourth Quarter 2011 major statistical components for granite were down around 15% from the previous quarter for the Production-Demand Index. The fourth Quarter 2011 major statistical components for marble were down slightly more than 15% from the previous quarter for the Production-Demand Index. Fourth Quarter 2011 granite countertops for its index were down around 15% also from the previous quarter.

March 14, 2012: Update: Graphite: 2012 overall U.S. natural graphite sales are likely to be up 5% from 2011, and overall sales in 2011 was up 8% from 2010. U.S. imports of natural graphite were up 10% to 71,790 tonnes. Sales in the various end-uses in 2012 are likely to grow almost the same as the overall sales, although in 2011 sales in refractories and graphite foil did slightly better than the overall sales.

March 14, 2012 Update: Dimension Stone : 2011 U.S. Demand statistics: The Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index based on 100 for 1997 was 260 for 2011 and 249 for 2010. The Demand Index for Granite Countertops based on 100 for 1997 was 860 for 2011 and 807 for 2010. The Demand Index for Marble and Granite Tile based on 100 for 1997 was 299 in 2011 and 270 in 2010.

March 14, 2012 Update: Dimension Stone: Results from the Spring 2012 Observer's Survey: For 2012, granite monuments sales are likely to be up 5% from 2011, granite countertop sales likely to be level with 2011, IN limestone sales are likely to be up 7% from 2011, 2012 slate (domestic) sales likely to be up 50% from 2011, 2012 granite curbing sales likely to be level with 2011, and 2012 building sandstone and flagstone sales are likely to be level with 2011. For 2011, granite monument sales were level with 2010, 2011 granite countertop sales were down 3% from 2010, 2011 IN limestone sales were up 6% from 2010, 2011 slate (domestic) sales were down 15% from 2010, and 2011 building sandstone and flagstone sales were down 3% from 2010.

January 11, 2012 Update: Dimension Stone: Second Quarter 2011 major statistical components for granite were much stronger than First Quarter 2011 and also stronger than the Second Quarter 2010 for the Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index; the same trend held true for Third Quarter 2011 compared to Second Quarter 2011 and Third Quarter 2011 compared to Third Quarter 2010. Second Quarter 2011 major statistical components for marble were also much stronger than First Quarter 2011 but slightly weaker than Second Quarter 2010 for the Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index; the same trend held true for Third Quarter 2011 compared to Second Quarter 2011 and Third Quarter 2011 was definitely stronger compared to Third Quarter 2010. The Granite Countertop Demand Index was a little stronger in Second Quarter 2011 and Third Quarter 2011 than in the analogous quarter in 2010. To sum up, with most of the evidence in, 2011 looks like it will be a little stronger than 2010.

December 31, 2011 Update:Dimension Stone: World Demand for Finished Granite Index was 236 for 2010, compared to 215 in 2009. World Demand for Finished Marble Index was 265 for 2010, compared to 230 for 2009.

December 28, 2011 Update: Bismuth: The U.S. consumption of bismuth for the first two quarters of 2011 were roughly 80% of the analogous quarters of 2010, and no consumption by end-use was given. The final 2010 World Bismuth Demand Index was 34, compared to 60 for 2009. To summarize, very discouraging.

July 14, 2011 Update: Dimension Stone: see February 22 with new expansion

July 7, 2011 Update: Dimension Stone: First Quarter 2011 major statistical components for granite were almost as bad as the First Quarter 2010 for the Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index. The First Quarter 2011 major statistical components for marble were even worse than those for the First Quarter 2010 for the Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index. The First Quarter 2011 Granite Countertop Demand Index was only slightly better than the one for First Quarter 2010.

Results from the Spring 2011 DSAN observers survey were insipid and not too encouraging. Granite monument sales in 2011 remain about level, 2011 granite countertop sales are down about 3% (high-end countertops down about 5%), 2011 Indiana limestone sales are up about 6%, slate (domestic) down about 5%, 2011 granite curbing sales up 5%, and building sandstone and flagstone sales are up 8%, all from 2010.

April 25, 2011: Review and outlook articles for dimension stone, graphite, bismuth compounds and antimony compounds covering 2010-11 will appear in the June 2011 Mining Engineering, its Industrial Minerals Review issue. The outlook for dimension stone, graphite and bismuth compounds is the same as in February.

February 22,2011 Update: Dimension Stone: Fourth Quarter 2010 major statistical components for granite were down 17% from Third Quarter 2010 for the Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index. Fourth Quarter 2010 major statistical components for marble were down 17% from Third Quarter 2010 for the Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index. The Fourth Quarter 2010 Granite Countertop Demand Index was down 12% from Third Quarter 2010.

February 22 & July 14, 2011 expansion:

World Demand for Finished Granite was 247 in 2007, 249 in 2008 and 215 for 2009; 2010 appears likely to be somewhat higher than 2009 based on incomplete numbers. World Demand for Finished Marble was 248 in 2007, 272 in 2008 and 230 in 2009; 2010 appears likely to be noticeably higher than 2009 based on incomplete numbers.

Overall Natural Graphite 2010 sales were up 22% from 2009, and 2011 sales are likely to be up 8% from 2010. Sales for most end-uses in 2010 were up 10%-20% from 2009 and 2011 sales are likely to be up an additional 5%. However, 2010 natural graphite sales for refractory end-uses were up 27%-28% over 2009, and 2011 is likely to be up almost an additional 10% from 2010, and 2010 sales for graphite foil and expanded graphite were up 11% from 2009 and 2011 sales for this use are likely to be up 9% from 2010. World 2010 natural graphite sales for Li-on batteries roughly tripled from 2009 and 2011 sales might come close to doubling from 2010. Obviously, there is now room for a few new natural graphite mines.

The Third Quarter 2010 U.S. bismuth consumption for each major end-use is practically identical to the Second Quarter 2010 consumption. When the final 2010 consumption is released, it is likely to show a major bounce-back from 2009 for chemical end-uses but less so for bismuth alloys; as expected, metallurgical additives will reflect steel demand. As China gets to be an even bigger supplier, it may get to be even more erratic (Note indium and graphite; also the formation of a Hunan bismuth producer's consortium.)

Indium sales in 2010 for the ITO used in computer screens and flat panel TVs was up 10% in much of the world and more like 15% in Asia; 2011 sales for ITO are likely to be up 15% in most of the world and perhaps above 20% in Asia. World indium use in solar cells was roughly 50-60 tonnes in 2010 and will probably be 60-80 tonnes in 2011. The Chinese Government may levy an export tax or put on stringent export quotas for indium to encourage use in China, upsetting world indium markets, as it has done for graphite and other minerals.

Antimony consumption (U.S.) in 2010 will be much better than in 2009; 2010 consumption in the Flame Retardants Group is likely to be up well over 50% from 2009.

December 17,2010 Update: Dimension Stone: Third Quarter 2010 major statistical components for granite were up 18% from Second Quarter 2010 for the Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index. Third Quarter 2010 major statistical components for marble were up 3.5% from Second Quarter 2010 for the Production-Demand Index. The Third Quarter 2010 Granite Countertop Demand Index was up 20% from Second Quarter 2010.

Results from the (incomplete) Fall 2010 DSAN observers survey look encouraging. The observers in the Spring 2010 survey were definitely more pessimistic about sales than they are now. For ( Fall 2010 survey) 2010, granite monuments are down 3-4%, granite countertops down 8%, and Indiana limestone up 3%, from 2009. For 2011, granite monuments are likely to be level, granite countertops likely up 3% (high-end countertops down more than 10%), Indiana limestone likely up 4%, slate (domestic) likely down another 5%, granite curbing likely up 5%, and building sandstone and flagstone likely up 5%-6%, all from 2010.

The World Bismuth Demand Index for 2009 is 60, up 9% from 2008. Second Quarter 2010 U.S. bismuth consumption for each end-use is almost exactly the same as in the First Quarter 2010.

September 11, 2010 Update: Dimension Stone: First Quarter 2010 major statistical components for granite were down 12% from the previous quarter and the Second Quarter 2010 components were up 40% from the First Quarter 2010 for the Production-Demand Index. First Quarter 2010 major statistical components for marble were down 10% from the previous quarter and the Second Quarter 2010 components were up 20% from the First Quarter. The First Quarter weakness may have been partly the result of the unprecedentedly bad winter in much of the U.S.

The World Bismuth Demand Index in 2009 might be up about 5% from the 55 in 2008, with a piece of the data missing. First Quarter 2010 bismuth consumption for each end-use is almost unchanged from Fourth Quarter 2009.

July 29, 2010 Update: Dimension Stone: Final 2009 and Preliminary 2010 U.S. Demand statistics: The Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index based on 100 for 1997 was 235 for 2009 and 250 (preliminary) for 2010. Granite was noticeably stronger than marble. The Demand Index for Granite Countertops based on 100 for 1997 was 625 in 2009 and 775 (preliminary) in 2010. The observers indicate that 2010 granite monument sales are likely to be down 5% from 2009, 2010 granite countertop sales level with 2009, 2010 Indiana limestone sales are likely to be level with 2009, and 2010 domestic slate sales are likely to be up 5% from 2009.

Very limited evidence suggests that bismuth demand in 2010 will be significantly higher than in 2009.

March 25, 2010 Update: Dimension Stone: Final and Semifinal 2009 U.S. Demand statistics: The Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index based on 100 for 1997 was 372 for 2007, 332 for 2008 and 235 for 2009. The Demand Index for Granite Countertops based on 100 for 1997 was 948 in 2008 and 625 in 2009. The Demand Index for Granite and Marble Tile based on 100 for 1997 was 429 in 2008 and 286 in 2009. A fairly incomplete observer poll indicates that 2010 sales of granite monuments are likely to be down, sales of Indiana limestone up a little, and slate sales up a little.

March 2, 2010 Update: (a) Dimension Stone: Fourth Quarter 2009 Trends for Demand: The 4th Quarter 2009 major statistical components for granite are down 7% from 3rd Quarter 2009. The 4th Quarter 2009 major statistical components for marble are down 14% from 3rd Quarter 2009. The 4th Quarter 2009 component for granite countertop demand is down 4% from 3rd Quarter 2009.

(b) Bismuth: U.S. 2009 Bismuth Demand (consumption) is likely to be down 40% from 2008, based on fairly complete statistics. The end uses did not have any noteworthy changes. The NY Dealer Price for bismuth was a little over $8 in midFebruary 2010.

January 22, 2010 Update: (a) dimension stone: removed, now replaced (above).

See http://www.basicsmines.com for this "Early Bird"

This blog shows the very latest indexes or data for dimension stone, bismuth, graphite, and indium. It replaces the Pulsetaking issues on http://www.basicsmines.com.